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Algérie : au lieu de Renault, pourquoi pas Peugeot ? - Algerie360
La naissance d’une joint-venture avec Renault devrait lancer enfin l’industrie automobile en Algérie. Mais dans le contexte dépressif actuel de la filière en Europe, Alger a peut-être joué petit bras. Il y avait mieux à faire avec Peugeot, la marque favorite des Algériens, à la capitalisation boursière descendue à un historique plus bas. Opinion et explications.
La dernière annonce de signature de la création d’une société mixte avec Renault ne doit pas leurrer sur les intentions réelles de ce dernier. Il est évident que Renault ne rentre dans ce partenariat qu’à reculons certainement pour ne pas froisser les Algériens et essayer tant que se peut en tergiversant de garder sa part de marché. Au ministère de l’industrie, on a de tout le temps pris la production d’une voiture ‘’made in Algeria’’ comme le nirvana de l’industrie industrialisante croyant par là qu’elle nous introduirait d’un seul coup dans le concert de nations industrialisées. Partant de là, ils ont fait la cour à Renault jusqu’à l’aveuglement sur les simples principes économiques de base. Mais en y allant par là, pourquoi forcement Renault, pourquoi pas son concurrent Peugeot dont il faut, peut être, profiter de ses difficultés actuelles ?
UN TRAVAIL LOW-COST POUR DES VOITURES LOW-COST
La stratégie globale de Renault mise à fond sur les pays émergents et développe ainsi toute une gamme de voitures low cost adaptées à ces marchés. Pour cela, il lui faut naturellement des coûts du travail low-cost et son usine de 400.000 unités qu’il a réalisée au Maroc voisin s’intègre parfaitement dans cette optique. Il serait illusoire alors d’espérer que Renault fasse quelque chose de significatif en Algérie à cause des handicaps bien connus du pays dont le manque de compétitivité, l’absence de sous-traitance et l’instabilité juridique ne sont pas les moindres. En fait, l’Algérie n’offre rien à part son marché. Sans être important, ce marché n’est pas négligeable non plus mais il n’est certainement pas de nature à faire changer à Renault sa stratégie, ni à entrer en concurrence frontale avec son usine de Tanger. Le fait que Renault insiste beaucoup sur la destination purement locale de la future production montre que l’usine sera très lointaine de ce que les Algériens imaginent en termes de production. Et peut être pire, en termes de qualité, à moins que ce ne soit qu’un autre subterfuge pour gagner du temps en attendant de vendre encore quelques milliers de voitures en plus. Le simple bon sens aurait commandé aux Algériens de faire une croix sur Renault dès l’annonce de la construction de l’usine de Tanger.
LE LION NE SORT PLUS SES GRIFFES…
D’un autre coté, le groupe PSA (Peugeot et Citroën) souffre d’être trop Français et Européen. Il construit presque une voiture sur deux en France et trois sur quatre en Europe. Les marchés Français et Européen sont en pleine déprime et les perspectives futures ne sont guère plus réjouissantes. Il ne profite pas assez de la demande des pays émergents car son offre low cost n’est pas très développée. En fait, il a raté sa tentative de montée en gamme (voitures plus luxueuses à plus forte marge) et se retrouve avec des coûts de travail comparables aux constructeurs Allemands, sauf qu’eux produisent des BMW et des Mercedes. La société est en pleine crise de stratégie industrielle. Elle a annoncé des plans sociaux mais doit affronter l’hostilité politique du gouvernement de gauche, la famille Peugeot étant suspectée d’avoir différé sciemment les annonces de ces plans pour ne pas gêner la réélection de Sarkozy.
Peugeot a été particulièrement malmené dernièrement en bourse et a été même sorti de l’indice du CAC40. Il ne pèse plus que 2,2 Mds Euros et la société est tellement bon marché qu’elle ne vaut qu’à peine 5% de son chiffre d’affaire annuel ! La majorité des parts est entre les mains d’investisseurs institutionnels étrangers (32%) et Français (18%) mais la famille Peugeot verrouille le capital avec 25% des parts mais plus de 38% des droits de vote.
ENTRÉE DANS LE CAPITAL MAIS SURTOUT PAS LA GESTION…
Pour influer réellement sur les décisions de Peugeot, une entrée dans le capital est nécessaire. Cela peut passer par l’acquisition de blocs détenus par les investisseurs institutionnels moyennant une belle prime quitte plus tard à lancer une OPA s’il le fallait. Ces investisseurs sont d’autant plus enclins à se délester de leurs titres car suite à la sortie de l’indice, le titre va devenir moins liquide ne serait-ce que pour des raisons réglementaires. Plusieurs fonds de placement exigent en effet dans leurs portefeuilles des sociétés de l’indice. Par contre, la famille Peugeot peut poser des problèmes. Elle a déjà fait obstacle par le passé à de plusieurs tentatives de rapprochement avec d’autres constructeurs.
Mais l’action est tellement peu chère qu’on peut envisager un passage en force sans réel risque d’être contré, le secteur automobile étant sinistré et fuit comme la peste en bourse. Un à deux Milliards d’Euros devrait suffire. C’est à peu près le prix de l’usine que Renault projette de réaliser en Algérie mais là on a en contrepartie le contrôle d’un constructeur qui fabrique quand même plus de 3 millions de voitures. Le cas PSA est intéressant à plus d’un titre car ce dernier possède quelques pépites comme l’équipementier Faurecia, dans lequel rien que sa participation de 60% est déjà évaluée à 1 Md d’Euros, ou la banque PSA Finances qui a dégagé 400 millions d’Euros de bénéfices en 2010.
L’instrument financier d’intervention existe, c’est le FNI (Fonds national d’investissement) dont les statuts et les missions devraient être toilettés et les ressources sérieusement gonflées. Bien entendu, ce dernier ne devrait pas se mêler de la gestion car c’est le meilleur moyen de couler la société…
LES VOITURES PEUGEOT ONT TOUJOURS EU LA COTE CHEZ LESALGÉRIENS
La société qui perd de l’argent doit réduire ses capacités de production avec la fermeture de plusieurs usines. Peugeot a arrêté sous la pression des USA et de son partenaire GM ses opérations en Iran où il vendait quand même presque 500.000 voitures en kit. Il serait intéressant de réorienter cette production vers l’Algérie dans un 1er temps avant de maitriser le processus de production et de monter progressivement dans l’intégration notamment par le développement des équipementiers locaux. C’est un temps nécessaire aussi pour développer le réseau de distribution et surtout le service aprèsvente.
En fait, tous les pays qui ont développé une industrie automobile à l’instar de la Corée ou de la Chine ont dû commencer par le montage pour ‘’apprendre le métier’’. Ce qui est considéré ici comme presque honteux par les décideurs locaux déconnectés des réalités économiques et industrielles du pays et ne tirant aucune leçon des nombreux échecs industriels qui se suivent depuis l’indépendance. Cette délocalisation en Algérie d’une partie de la production qui de toutes manière est condamnée en France, ne plaira certainement pas au gouvernement Français. Il faudrait y mettre les formes et mobiliser les réseaux commerciaux et diplomatiques et faire passer cela comme un exemple de coopération avec les pays du Maghreb. Après tout, nos représentations diplomatiques ne sont pas là que pour les réceptions et les petits fours…