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L’Algérie s’est installée dans le déclin pétro-gazier - Algerie360
L’anniversaire de la nationalisation des hydrocarbures a été célébré avec un appui particulier cette année sous l’onde de choc de l’attaque subie à In Amenas. Le sujet qui a émergé dans tous les forums consacrés au secteur de l’énergie est alarmant. La production algérienne d’hydrocarbures décline. Trou d’air ou sentence géologique ? Débat et stress.
Le sujet était presque tabou il y a trois ans. Il est au cœur de toutes les discussions, nombreuses ce mois de février, autour du secteur de l’énergie. La production algérienne d’hydrocarbures est tendanciellement en baisse. Le thème a même pris une dimension dramatique le mardi 12 février à l’hôtel Sofitel d’Alger lorsque devant une salle médusée l’ancien ministre des finances le professeur Benachenhou annonçait que la baisse de la production en volume était de 20% entre 2005 et 2012. Un chiffre immédiatement contesté par Ali Hached, conseiller au ministère de l’énergie. De source « officielle », la baisse ne serait « que de » 6% sur la période après un pic atteint en 2005 (220 mtep), un plateau jusqu’en 2008, puis depuis une baisse continue jusqu’en 2012 (206 mtep). La polémique qui s’en est suivie sur l’amplitude de cette baisse atteste bien de la nouvelle donne. En 2006-2007, le débat était de savoir s’il était réaliste de vouloir exporter 85 milliards de m3 de gaz naturel en 2012. Aujourd’hui il est de savoir si la production est en chute, – 20% selon l’interprétation de Benachenhou des chiffres de l’ONS- ou seulement en baisse selon le reporting des chiffres de Sonatrach (- 6%). Déclin historique ou trou d’air conjoncturel ? Le débat est lancé.
De l’eau dans les puits de Hassi R’mel
Les raisons de la baisse de la production algérienne d’hydrocarbures déterminent une partie de la réponse. « Mauvais management du secteur » a affirmé Abdelmadjid Attar ancien patron de Sonatrach et première personnalité politique algérienne à avoir alerté sur le déclin des réserves prouvées dès 2009. Un point de vue partagé dans d’autres termes par Ali Hached. « La loi sur les hydrocarbures de 2005 a bloqué une dynamique gagnante de partenariats sur notre amont pétro-gazier ». En d’autres termes, c’est essentiellement la panne dans l’exploration qui dure depuis 9 ans qui est à la source de la baisse de la production depuis 2008. « Pas seulement », expliquent d’autres acteurs du secteur. Le développement de la province gazière du sud-ouest – Reggane- Touat- Gourara (Gaz de France, Repsol, Statoil) a pris beaucoup de retard. C’est environ 8 milliards de m3 de gaz par an qui aurait du venir consolider le solde de production algérien si le plateau de production optimal avait été atteint depuis un an. Le gazoduc de collecte et de connexion de cette région sur le hub de Hassi R’Mel – ou sur la sortie Maroc-, se fait attendre. Source du blocage, la profitabilité des petits gisements du sud ouest. Aux yeux des partenaires étrangers de Sonatrach, elle n’est pas établie à cause du cadre fiscal qui était en vigueur. La donne devrait changer depuis le récent amendement de la loi. Si on ajoute à cela les déboires du projet de Gassi Touil, c’est encore 6 à 7 milliards de m3 de gaz par an qui ne sont pas encore arrivés sur le marché à cause du conflit entre Sonatrach et ses partenaires espagnols en charge du développement du projet. Ces éléments alignés donnent le sentiment que la production – notamment de gaz sec – repartira à la hausse avec le changement du cadre légal, et l’entrée en production des projets retardés. Rien n’est moins sur, en vérité. Car la déplétion guette les grands gisements que sont Hassi Messaoud et Hassi R’mel.
L’ancien PDG de Sonatrach, Nazim Zouiouèche a rapporté, samedi dernier au Forum d’Alger de Cabinet Emergy, le désastre qui menace le géant gazier de Hassi R’mel. « Nous savons maintenons que de l’eau est arrivée dans certains puits. Si nous reprenons pas un effort exceptionnel d’injection de gaz, c’est de 30% à 40% du gaz récupérable qui peut être piégé ». Le plateau de production arrêté en 1980 pour Hassi R’mel était de 92 milliards de m3 par an dont 60 milliards ré-injectable dans le gisement afin d’en maintenir un taux de pression sécurisant. C’est ce « cyclage » qui n’a pas été respecté durant la période de gestion Khelil-Meziane dans le but d’afficher des chiffres d’exportations proches des objectifs proclamés.
La cause parait perdue sans un frein sur la demande domestique
La chute de la production algérienne d’hydrocarbures n’est donc pas seulement un problème de contrats et de prospection. Les règles prudentielles de l’exploitation pour respecter la vie des gisements semblent avoir été bafouées entre 2002 et 2010. Plus personne ne s’en cache devant les responsables en place du ministère de l’énergie. Héritage de la période Khelil, le déclin pourrait bien alors devenir géologique. En dépit des « belles surprises » que nous réserve encore l’immense amont pétro-gazier algérien, promet Nazim Zouiouèche. En attendant ce rebond de l’exploration – les plus optimistes rêvent d’un nouveau bassin de Berkine – il faudra sauver les gisements existants de la déplétion rapide qui les menace. Améliorer les taux de récupération. Un discours qui rappelle étrangement celui de la période de crise de 1991, lorsque le chef du gouvernement Sid Ahmed Ghozali annonçait une solution miracle dans le reboosting de Hassi Messaoud. « Nous sommes déjà dans la récupération tertiaire à Hassi Messaoud » rappelle fort à propos Nazim Zouiouèche, qui ajoute toutefois qu’une récupération qui s’améliore seulement de 1% sur ce gisement permet d’obtenir 500 millions de barils, c’est-à-dire un grand gisement dans les formats d’aujourd’hui. Tewfik Hasni, ancien vice président de Sonatrach insiste sur la récupération des gaz torchés, notamment pour soutenir la production des huiles. Une option qui fait date et dont Sonatrach- sans management- n’arrive même pas à financer l’étude de faisabilité. L’exploitation du pétrole Tight avec les nouvelles technologies de la fracturation rocheuse liées au gaz de schiste est une nouvelle piste. Mais les apports nouveaux couteront plus chers et ne pèseront pas significativement sur la courbe de production. Le gaz de schiste lui peut faire rebondir les réserves algériennes. Mais l’opportunité financière de son exploitation est toujours en discussion. Pour Nazim Zouiouèche au-delà d’un certain coût « la priorité doit clairement aller vers le solaire car après tout l’essentiel de l’utilisation du gaz en Algérie est tirée par la croissance de la consommation électrique ». La baisse de la production algérienne d’hydrocarbures devrait se stabiliser en 2013-2014. Au-delà le spectre du déclin historique reviendra. Face à une consommation domestique de produits énergétiques qu’il est « temps de mettre sous contrainte » affirme Nourredine Ait Laoussine, ancien ministre de l’énergie. La première des réponses à la chute de la production d’hydrocarbures ? Le ralentissement de « la hausse irresponsable » de la consommation. Un point de vue qui lui aussi a gagné du terrain en ce 24 février pas comme les autres.