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Lettre au président : Et si on avait créé un fond souverain en 2008... - Algerie360
Durant toute l´année 2008 je n´avais pas cesser d´écrire dans les journaux algeriens pour attirer l´attention du gouvernement algerien sur la création d´un fond souverain .
Mon acharnement sur ce sujet exprimait bien ma crainte de voir cette chance s´évaporer avec le temps , le monde traversait une crise financiére qui rentrera dans les manus de l´histoire , il faut remonter le temps et atterir sur l´année 1929 pour voir une crise pareille .
Á quatres reprises et dans 3 journaux algeriens et avec toutes les connaissances que je possédes dans le domaine de la bourse j´ai exprimé ma pensée sur cette opportunité qu´il fallait pas rater . Il faut attendre 25 ou 30 ans pour qu´une occasion pareille se présentera de nouveau . si quelqu´un vient aujourd´hui me demander mon avis sur la création d´un fond souverain je lui dirait prudence prudence .
le premier article a eté publié par le journal Al Khabar le 19 Mai 2008 , le second était sur le journal Le Maghreb le 17 juillet , le lundi 21 juillet c´était au tour du supplément économique du jour El Watan et finalement cette fameuse lettre que j´avais adressé au president de la Republique Monsieurs Abdelaziz Bouteflika et qui a été publié par le journal Al Khabar le 21 Decembre 2008.
Si le gouvernement Algerien avait á la fin de l´année 2008 crée un fond souverain avec un portefeuille contenant des parts de fonds indiciels d´une valeur de 100 milliards de dollars ( ce fond serait devenu opérationel á partir du 1 janvier 2009 ) . La valeur de ce portefeuille serait aujourd´hui 240 milliards de dollars un gain ( avant impot ) de 140 milliards de dollars . á titre explicatif voici la cotation en points des grands indices boursiers en europe aux USA et au Japon datant des mois de Janvier et Fevrier 2009 .
Le DAX allemand était á 3843 points en Fevrier 2009 il se retrouve á 9946 ce vendredi 30 Mai 2014 ( l´indice a presque triplé ) Le CAC 40 francais était á 2703 points et aujourd´hui il á 4529 point ( une progression de 72% ) le Nikkei japonais était á 7995 point en janvier 2009 il est actuellement á 14650 points ( une hausse de 83% ) . le Dow Jones américain était á 7023 points , il a atteint les 16720 points ce vendredi ( une progression de de 138% ) le nasdaq americain a quant á lui tripplé pa rapport au mois de Fevrier 2008 . Regardez et contemplez ces énormes gains que notre pays avait raté . voici ci dessous le contenu de la lettre que j´avais adressé au president au mois de Decembre 2008 .
Monsieur le Président,
L’intérêt du pays et l’élan patriotique m’incitent à vous écrire cette lettre afin de vous persuader de l’urgence et de la nécessité de créer un fond souverain, avec une certitude absolue je dirais que le moment est devenu opportun .
En effet,les cours des actions cotées dans les grandes places boursières ont considérablement chuté, la crise des liquidités empêche les investisseurs institutionnels de se jeter corps et âme sur le marché des actions, mais elle n’empêchera pas l’Algerie de profiter de cette aubaine.
Monsieur le président je tiens à vous présenter maintenant les sept arguments de base qui légitiment l’attractivité du marché des actions :
1 – Le taux des dividendes distribué aux actionnaires américains reste supérieur au taux des bons de trésor américain
2 – Les fonds fermés américains, européens et japonais se négocient avec une décote allant jusqu’à 25%
3 – Plusieurs entreprises américaines, asiatiques et européennes voient leurs valeurs boursières se rapprocher de leurs valeurs comptables (une aubaine pour les adeptes de l´investissement en valeur)
4 – le taux de croissance d’une grande majorité des compagnies cotées en bourse dépasse actuellement le PER ( Price per Earnings Ratio ) de ces compagnies (une aubaine pour les investisseurs en croissance)
5 – Plus de la moitié des actions américaines, européennes et japonaises cotées en bourses se traitent avec des PER au-dessous de 10
6 – Avec les nouvelles politiques monétaires de la FED (la banque centrale américaine) et celle de la BCE (la banque centrale européenne) visant à abaisser leurs taux d’intérêt à un niveau proche du zéro pour relancer l’économie, de telles politiques rendent le marché des actions très attractif aux yeux des investisseurs des marchés financiers.
7 – Sur une perspective purement économique lorsque les taux d’intérêt se rapprochent de zéro il y a pratiquement aucune chance de gagner de l’argent sur le marché obligataire ceci renforce l’idée du transfert des capitaux du marché obligataire vers le marché des actions. Monsieurs le Président, je tiens à vous exprimer ici mon opinion sur les avantages d’un fond souverain.
1- L’avantage principal de l’investissement dans les actions se caractérise par le rendement élevé comparé au rendement des autres actifs financiers et cela a été prouvé par par l’économiste américain de l´université de Yale, M. Roger Ibbotson dont l’étude est une référence dans le monde de la finance. Ibbotson a etudié les performances annuelles de différentes classes d’actifs américains de 1926 à 2002, et il a constaté que le rendement annuel en moyenne des actions des grandes compagnies américaines était de 12,4%, celui des petites compagnies était de 17,5% , celui des obligations à long terme des grandes compagnies était de 5,7% et celui des bons de trésor américains (ce dont la Banque d’Algérie dispose) était de 3,8% et á noter que durant cette période de il y a eu trois crashs boursiers : celui de 1929, celui d’octobre 1987 et le crash des valeurs technologiques de mars 2000, plus une dizaine de crises financières, cette étude montre aussi qu’un dollar investi dans les actions en 1926 aurait une valeur nominale de 2787$ en 2002, et qu’un dollar investi en 1926 dans les bons de Trésor américain aurait une valeur nominale de 16,60$ en 2002.
2 – Un fond souverain offre une transparence totale, tout citoyen algérien pourra suivre quotidiennement l’évolution du portefeuille du fond en hausse et en baisse (appreciation et dépréciation), ceci soignera certainement l’image ternie de l’Algérie dans ce domaine .
3 – En créant un fond souverain l’Etat détiendra des parts du capital de plusieurs sociétés Multi-Nationales, ceci lui donnera le droit de faire siéger nos compatriotes au sein du conseil administratif de ces Multi-Nationales et par conséquent avoir l’avantage de solliciter ou même d’exiger l’implantation de ces entreprises en Algérie et en même temps avoir droit à d’autres avantages, par exemple des rabais dans les contrats pour les projets industriels que l’Algérie a l’habitude de signer avec ces Multi-Nationales, le transfert technologique et la formation des cadres algériens serait également facilité.
Monsieur le Président, comme vous le savez, il y a eu pendant le printemps et l’été 2008 un débat sur la création d’un fond souverain, quelques honorables ministres accompagnés d’imminents experts économiques algériens et un groupe de chefs des institutions économiques et financières ont pris part à ce débat, tout en respectant les opinions des acteurs de ce débat mais en ayant pris connaissance du contenu et des déclarations de ces messieurs je suis dans l’obligation de constater ce qui suit :
Le débat était pauvre en arguments, les points essentiels ainsi que les éléments de base du sujet ont été complètement ignorés, les débatteurs se sont lancés dans des généralités, faisant l’amalgamme entre investir en bourse et spéculer en bourse, quelques acteurs du débat et à leur tête M. Karim Djoudi, ministre des finances avaient mentionné la notion du risque d’un fond souverain en présentant la crise financière comme un argument, ce raisonnement est vraiment naïf, un économiste avisé sait pertinemment que la période des crises financières est un moment opportun pour l’investissement en bourse, que les crises économiques et financières obéissent à des cycles qui se répètent tous 8-12 ans, en plus lorsque on aborde la notion du risque du portefeuille d’un fond souverain le langaage financier nous incite à préciser de quels types de risque s’agit-il, car le risque ici se distingue par sa multi-forme, il y a le risque systématique, le risque spécifique, le risque global et le risque non-systématique, les acteurs du débat ont aussi fait preuve d’une étonnante méconnaissance du sujet à titre d’exemple, l’étude d’Ibbotson, les stratégies de la diversification du risque, le coefficient de corrélation, les trois grands modèles d’évaluation du portefeuille MPT, MEDAF, APT, tous ces éléments de base ont été ignorés
Espérant que vous serez sensible à ma suggestion, je vous prie de croire, Monsieur le Président,à l’assurance de ma haute considération
Noureddine Legheliel analyste boursier en Suède