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Mali : Hollande s'en va-t-en guerre - Algerie360
Le chef de l’État veut agir au Sahel. Pour ce baptême du feu, il lui faudra au préalable revenir à la réalité de l’Afrique et lever une incertitude : la position exacte de l’Algérie, très bien informée de ce qui se passe sur sa frontière sud.
Déterminé, convaincant, François Hollande a réussi sa première grande épreuve internationale devant l’Assemblée générale des Nations unies la semaine dernière. De toutes les urgences de la planète, Hollande en a retenu deux pour lesquelles la France se sent davantage impliquée, par ses intérêts diplomatiques, sécuritaires et économiques : la crise syrienne, qui s’éternise, et la crise malienne, qui s’intensifie.Sur la Syrie, Hollande n’a pu dresser qu’un constat d’impuissance de la communauté internationale. Sa mise en cause de l’incapacité de l’Onu à trouver une solution a été, pour lui, le meilleur moyen d’éviter les vraies questions : l’Occident – notamment la France – a-t-il vraiment intérêt à faire tomber le régime de Bachar al-Assad ? L’opposition syrienne est-elle aussi crédible qu’on veut bien le dire ? N’est-elle pas porteuse de lendemains qui pourraient faire déchanter tous les défenseurs des droits de l’homme ? « Poser les questions, c’est y répondre », résument prudemment quelques diplomates expérimentés, très peu allants sur ce dossier d’emblée piégé par les donneurs de leçons de morale.Le chef de l’État s’est montré nettement plus volontaire sur la situation au Mali, presque offensif dans sa détermination à agir. Ce théâtre sahélien pourrait être sa “première guerre”, en ce début de quinquennat, à l’image de ses prédécesseurs qui connurent aussi très vite leur baptême du feu : François Mitterrand affronta l’épreuve cruelle du Liban en 1983 ; Jacques Chirac changea le cours des événements militaires à Sarajevo en mai 1995 ; Nicolas Sarkozy décida l’envoi de renforts en Afghanistan en 2007, peu avant la terrible embuscade d’Ouzbine d’août 2008 (dix morts).François Hollande s’est prononcé de façon nette : la France appuiera une intervention militaire interafricaine placée sous le mandat des Nations unies. Elle ne sera toutefois pas en première ligne, ni engagée directement sur le terrain. À elle l’appui aérien, le renseignement, la logistique. L’adversaire est désigné : les groupes islamistes radicaux qui contrôlent le nord du Mali depuis avril. Les contraintes sont connues : les six otages français détenus dans cette zone. La détermination semble totale : « La nécessité de libérer nos otages ne doit pas passer par un renoncement à assurer l’intégrité du Mali », annonce François Hollande.Ce volontarisme français n’est pas partagé par toute la communauté internationale et va se heurter aux réalités africaines, que l’ancien député de la Corrèze ne devrait pas sous-estimer. À l’Onu, on s’inquiète des conséquences humanitaires d’une opération militaire dans une région déjà instable et déshéritée. Le Conseil de sécurité demande des précisions sur les modalités de l’intervention africaine sous parapluie français : c’est une façon très diplomatique de traîner les pieds.La réalité africaine devrait nettement ralentir l’élan donné par l’Élysée. Il faudra des semaines pour obtenir le feu vert définitif à la constitution de cette force de 3 330 hommes. Quelques pays ont annoncé leur contribution : le Nigeria, la Côte d’Ivoire, le Burkina Faso, et peut-être le Tchad et le Sénégal. D’autres pourraient suivre, attirés par les “compensations” que les Nations Unies et la France ne manqueront pas d’offrir…Des questions se posent aussi sur le commandement de cette force, sur sa coordination avec le département des opérations de l’Onu à New York. Des précédents fâcheux – au Soudan, au Congo démocratique – n’incitent pas à l’optimisme. Il faudra ensuite rassembler les contingents à Bamako, les équiper, les entraîner et les faire travailler ensemble. Cette force devra alors encadrer la petite armée malienne, ou ce qu’il en reste, et commencer sa marche vers le front, à près de 700 kilomètres au nord de la capitale. Les ardeurs martiales d’aujourd’hui pourraient s’ensabler.Alger noue des contacts avec les islamistes radicaux du MaliLa France va aussi devoir éclairer ce qu’a voulu dire François Hollande sur les adversaires de cette force. Il a parlé des « régions du Nord occupées » qu’il faudra « libérer ». Le problème est que la quasi-totalité des islamistes insurgés (5 000 combattants au maximum) ne sont pas des “occupants” mais d’authentiques citoyens maliens, notamment touaregs. Ils ont conquis le nord du pays et imposé la charia mais ils sont chez eux.Les non-Maliens (500 à 800 combattants) sont pour la plupart combattants dans les rangs d’Aqmi et de ses épigones. Ces katibas de djihadistes aguerris mais minoritaires grenouillent dans le désert aux confins du Mali, du Niger, de l’Algérie et de la Libye. Ils sont issus de ces pays et d’ailleurs (Tchad, Égypte, Somalie, Yémen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bosnie, avec quelques Français). D’autres devraient les rejoindre pour tenter de former un “Sahélistan”, amorce du califat islamique africain dont ils rêvent.Il sera difficile de séparer ces terroristes internationaux des insurgés nationaux maliens. Ce distinguo est important car il permettrait de mobiliser les pays hésitants ou circonspects. C’est le cas des États-Unis, qui ne voudront s’engager que dans le cadre d’une “guerre contre la terreur”. D’autres pays donneraient leur feu vert si l’opération ne consistait pas à briser une simple opposition armée au régime de Bamako. Il faudra les convaincre.L’incertitude est totale enfin sur le jeu exact de l’Algérie, fidèle à ses habitudes d’opacité. Alger se dit hostile à toute intervention internationale dans son arrière-cour sahélienne, à plus forte raison en cas de présence française affichée. L’avertissement compte. L’Algérie a près de 1 300 kilomètres de frontières communes avec le Mali et autant avec le Niger, deux pays par où transitent tous les trafics, sur lesquels elle est très bien informée.Alger joue un jeu ambigu avec les islamistes radicaux de la zone, dont beaucoup sont citoyens algériens, repoussés au sud du Hoggar, dans l’immensité de l’Adrar des Iforas. Les services algériens sont souvent accusés de manipuler tel ou tel chef islamiste, tel ou tel clan touareg. Ils ont un bon “contact” avec le groupe radical malien Ansar Dine, dont des représentants étaient récemment à Alger.Déjà parrain d’un accord de paix signé en juillet 2006 entre Bamako et la rébellion touarègue, le président algérien Abdelaziz Bouteflika veut avoir son mot à dire. Le tout est de savoir ce qu’il exigera et obtiendra en contrepartie de son feu… orange