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SYRIE ,La crise peut s'inscrire dans la durée - Algerie360
Ceux qui alimentent le brasier syrien risquent d’être rattrapés par les flammes
Depuis bientôt un an et demi, la Syrie vit une crise dont le dénouement est imprévisible. Et le peuple syrien souffre de voir son pays martyrisé et se vider de sa sève. Comme chaque peuple, il a le droit de vivre en paix et en sécurité. L’Etat est le garant de ce droit. Sa capacité à exercer ses responsabilités dépend de facteurs internes, régionaux et internationaux. Dans le cas de la Syrie, ils sont tous défavorables.
Au plan national
Au plan national, les raisons qui sous-tendent la crise syrienne ne divergent pas de celles qui ont secoué la Tunisie et l’Egypte: une aspiration profonde des peuples à la dignité et à la liberté afin que chaque individu puisse vivre pleinement sa citoyenneté et développer sans entraves son génie ou ses dons au service de la communauté; une aspiration profonde à une vie meilleure qui rend le chômage insupportable pour une jeunesse instruite et ouverte sur le monde, surtout dans certaines zones urbaines et dans les campagnes.
L’arrivée au pouvoir de Bachar El Assad en 2000 a fait planer l’espoir de réformes politiques et économiques. L’attentisme qui a suivi a fait perdre espoir aux plus optimistes. Les mesures prises il y a quelques mois auraient pu constituer une bonne base de départ, mais elles sont venues un peu tard. Et le vieil appareil du parti Baath aussi bien que ceux qui complotent contre la Syrie avaient intérêt à les étouffer.
Au plan régional
Au plan régional, la Syrie est entourée de pays qui oeuvrent à sa perte. Les contentieux avec certains milieux libanais puissants sont connus. Ainsi que ceux avec Israël qui occupe une partie du territoire syrien.
Du côté de la Jordanie, les armées des deux pays échangent déjà des tirs d’obus par-dessus la frontière près de laquelle s’entassent les réfugiés syriens.
Les Etats du Golfe ne font pas mystère de leur soutien matériel, financier et diplomatique aux insurgés. Seul le gouvernement irakien manifeste une certaine compréhension envers le régime syrien, mais le pays est divisé et n’a pas les moyens de contrôler sa frontière.
La Turquie (qui est tout sauf un modèle pour les pays arabes car elle-même a pour modèle l’Europe qu’elle s’échine à copier depuis le XIXe siècle malgré les déboires anciens et récents, s’abrite sous le parapluie de l’Otan et abrite des armes nucléaires américaines) est le voisin le plus puissant de la Syrie. Sa politique étrangère, basée sur le principe de «0 problème» avec les voisins, dont l’initiateur est l’actuel ministre des Affaires étrangères, Ahmet Davutoglu, est aujourd’hui un total fiasco.
La Turquie est devenue une base de déstabilisation de la Syrie et peut-être bientôt une partie au conflit, si on croit les nouvelles sur les résultats de la visite de la secrétaire d’Etat américaine à Istanbul, le samedi passé. Elle a perdu le couloir routier qu’empruntaient ses biens destinés aux pays du Golfe et n’a de chance de le retrouver que si ceux qu’elle aide prennent le pouvoir.
L’Irak aurait pu être un substitut, mais les deux pays entretiennent des relations exécrables: le ministre turc des Affaires étrangères s’est rendu récemment au Kurdistan irakien sans passer par Baghdad et l’armée turque viole allégrement le territoire irakien (un territoire arabe, faut-il le rappeler?).
La crise syrienne a aussi compliqué les relations de la Turquie avec la Russie et l’Iran. Moscou ne peut pas ne pas donner une dimension atlantique à la position d’Ankara.
L’Iran ne peut apprécier que d’aucuns cherchent à le couper du seul allié qui lui permet de jouer un rôle régional, faisant ainsi le jeu des Etats du Golfe qui le visent à travers la Syrie.
Lorsqu’un conflit éclate dans une région donnée, les Etats prioritaires pour oeuvrer à son règlement pacifique sont ceux de la région elle-même (Chapitre VIII de la Charte de l’ONU).
Le Conseil de sécurité ne s’en saisit qu’en cas d’échec avéré. La Ligue arabe, aidée par la Turquie en tant que pays voisin, s’est naturellement saisi du conflit syrien, mais avec un agenda autre que son règlement par la voie pacifique.
Ceux qui ont chassé la Syrie de la Ligue arabe, se privant du principal interlocuteur, et fait sciemment échouer la Mission des observateurs arabes (victime de l’objectivité de ses rapports), avaient pour objectif de porter le plus rapidement possible la crise syrienne devant le Conseil de sécurité pour actionner le Chapitre VII de la Charte de l’ONU et rééditer le scénario libyen. Ce faisant, ils ont sabordé tout espoir d’une solution arabe et fait la preuve de l’impuissance ou de l’incapacité de la Ligue à régler les conflits concernant les Etats membres par ses propres moyens.
Au plan international
A sa décharge, on peut avancer que sa Charte est vieillotte et qu’elle ne dispose pas d’un mécanisme efficace de règlement des conflits, contrairement à l’OUA qui a su rénover à temps ses structures et ses méthodes de travail.
La Ligue arabe doit se remettre fondamentalement en cause et secouer la poussière et les oripeaux qui l »étouffent pour laisser place à un mécanisme «moderne» et «démocratique».
Au Conseil de sécurité, le scénario libyen ne s’est pas renouvelé pour la Syrie. Le triple veto russo-chinois a consacré la division de la communauté internationale, la réduisant à l’impuissance.
Désormais, tout ce qui est fait ou sera fait en faveur des insurgés (aide en armes, en équipements divers, en renseignement) n’engagera que ses auteurs. Le chemin qu’ils ont emprunté et qu’ils persistent à poursuivre a eu pour conséquence l’intensification des combats, suivie de la démission de M.Kofi Annan dont le plan de règlement méritait d’être soutenu car il offrait le seul espoir de paix.
Il est patent que sa mission n’a pas reçu les appuis nécessaires. Il est patent aussi que certains Etats membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité ont affiché immédiatement leurs intentions en demandant un changement de régime en Syrie, s’attirant une réplique d’une logique implacable car fondée sur le respect du droit international: seul un peuple a le droit de changer ses dirigeants. Certains ont fait des erreurs d’appréciation incompréhensibles (1).
Il est indéniable que la Mission des observateurs de l’ONU (Misnus) a connu les mêmes avatars que ceux de la Ligue arabe et pour les mêmes raisons. Conformément à la résolution 2059 adoptée par le Conseil de sécurité le 20 juillet dernier, son mandat prendra fin ce 19 août, compliquant davantage la mission du successeur de M. Kofi Annan, la rendant encore plus impossible.
Seul un règlement pacifique
Les événements coordonnés du mois de juillet étaient planifiés pour soulever la population et faire tomber le régime: attentat qui a décapité l’appareil sécuritaire; attaques armées massives et simultanées contre Damas et Alep; défections médiatisées de généraux dont Manaf Tlass, général de brigade de la Garde républicaine et ami d’enfance du président Bachar El Assad; défections de quelques diplomates; renforcement des sanctions unilatérales par les Occidentaux; mobilisation sans précédent de certains médias arabes et occidentaux et tentatives de réduire au silence la télévision syrienne; forcing au Conseil de sécurité.
Toutes ces actions coordonnées n’ont pas fait bouger la population (instruite par l’exemple irakien) et n’ont pas désarçonné le régime qui a pourvu rapidement les postes sécuritaires devenus vacants et répondu et répond militairement à chaque nouveau défi. Il semble avoir encore des réserves et le potentiel d’aller encore plus haut dans l’escalade. Si tel était le cas -et c’est probablement le cas- la Syrie va connaître encore morts et destructions et alors commencerait à se développer cette haine qui détruit le «vouloir-vivre ensemble».
Une solution pacifique est encore possible. Pour peu que les soutiens extérieurs des parties en conflit décident de faire ce choix et forcent l’opposition émiettée à s’unir pour parler d’une seule voix. C’est à cette seule condition que le successeur de M. Kofi Annan, quel qu’il soit, pourrait réussir sa mission.
Sinon, la Syrie sombrerait dans une guérilla longue et coûteuse. Et si les insurgés venaient finalement à gagner, d’autres prendraient leur place dans une guerre civile sans fin. Sans oublier que ceux qui alimentent le brasier syrien risquent d’être rattrapés par les flammes.
C’est que la place de la Syrie sur l’échiquier régional fait que les enjeux stratégiques sont trop élevés pour que le scénario libyen se répète.
(1)Les anciennes puissances coloniales se croient toujours investies d’un droit de regard prioritaire sur leurs anciennes colonies ou protectorats.
La France n’échappe pas à la règle et veut jouer le rôle de locomotive en Syrie d’où précipitation et mauvaise appréciation de la situation dès le départ par Juppé, alors MAE. Son successeur n’a pas rectifié le cap. Il y a eu mauvaise appréciation: concernant les positions de la Russie et de la Chine qui veulent un monde multipolaire basé sur la légalité internationale; concernant la possibilité d’une intervention militaire dans une région aussi volatile où personne ne veut envoyer ses «boys»; concernant l’opposition syrienne qui est émiettée (le CNS est formé d’exilés en Occident coupés des réalités); concernant l’alliance avec les Etats du Golfe au nom… de la démocratie.
Enfin, cette erreur commune à tous les pays occidentaux qui croient que la reconnaissance d’un régime par la communauté internationale, c’est-à-dire par eux, peut remplacer la représentativité populaire.